Kamala Harris No Longer Favorite in Nate Silver Model: ‘Literally 50/50’

Vice President Kamala Harris is no longer the favorite to win the election in November, according to pollster Nate Silver.
For the first time, Silver’s forecast shows that Donald Trump and Harris now essentially have an equal chance of winning in November, with Harris standing at 50.1 percent, compared to Trump’s 49.7 percent.
It comes as Harris’ odds of victory in the election have dropped by about 6 percentage points since late September, with Trump gaining in 19 states, according to Silver’s forecast.
“The forecast is really close. After another day of polls showing an essentially tied race in the Midwestern battlegrounds, it’s now literally 50/50,” Silver wrote on his website.
“We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate. It hasn’t been a huge swing, but even a half point to a point makes a difference,” he added.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Many polls from key swing states show one of the candidates ahead by razor-thin margins, which are often within the polls’ margins of error.
For example, every poll conducted in Wisconsin in the past two weeks has shown either Harris or Trump leading by 1 or 2 points, or tied. Harris has only led in three polls, including surveys by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Research Co. and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, in the past two weeks in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump has led seven polls.
Overall, Harris is ahead by 0.5 points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, down from 1.6 points on October 1. Silver’s analysis shows that she is 0.8 points ahead in the state, down from 1.9 points on October 1.
Polls from other swing states, particularly Michigan and Pennsylvania, tell a similar story, with surveys showing both candidates leading by between 1 and 4 points in the past two weeks, while Harris’ lead has reduced from 1.9 points to 0.7 points in Michigan since October 1, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver’s tracker shows her lead currently standing at 1 point in the state, down from 2.1 points at the beginning of the month.
However in Pennsylvania, Harris’ lead has increased by 0.1 points to 0.7 percent since October 1, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver’s tracker shows her ahead by 0.6 points, down from 1.2 points.
In Nevada, where Harris currently leads by between 0.7 and 0.8 points, according to both pollsters, surveys have shown Harris leading by between 1 and 4 points, while Trump’s lead has been between 1 and 6 points in the last two weeks, eating into Harris’ position, which is down from 1 point in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker and 1.8 points in Silver’s tracker since October 1.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has the lead, according to both trackers. However, they are still very close in all three states, with surveys still alternating between which candidate is in front.
FiveThirtyEight shows Trump’s lead has grown by between 0.1 and 0.2 points in all three states since October 1. Silver’s tracker shows the same trend for Arizona and North Carolina, while his lead has decreased by 0.1 point in Georgia since the beginning of the month.
Nonetheless, Harris is still ahead nationally, with Harris ahead by 2.4 points according to FiveThirtyEight, and 2.8 points according to Silver.
But while Harris is forecast to win the popular vote, her chances of overall success hinge on her ability to win swing states. The vice president needs 44 Electoral College votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump needs 51.
If Harris won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, she would reach the electoral threshold required to win.
Silver’s latest forecasts showed that Harris was narrowly on track to achieve this, although he said in late September that he believed the vice president’s campaign should be nervous about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Although Silver described Michigan as a relatively safer bet for Harris, RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker last week showed that Michigan had flipped in favor of Trump for the first time since July 29. Nevada and Pennsylvania have also gone Republican.
Silver has repeatedly said that this election is looking to be the tightest he has ever observed.
His October 14 forecast showed that the Democratic presidential nominee’s chances of winning the Electoral College had fallen to 51.8 percent—dropping by about 6 percentage points since late September.